A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."